Topline Takeaways

• Voters in only 25 states had the option to vote 'uncommitted' in their state's Democratic presidential nominating contest this year.
• Of those 25 states, eleven saw 10% or more of Democrats voice their displeasure with Biden via 'uncommitted' votes, including in swing states like Michigan and North Carolina.
• Despite this national protest vote being sparked by displeasure with Israeli aggression in Gaza, the Biden administration remains steadfast in its support of Israel.

What is an "Uncommitted" vote?

While most of us are used to voting for a specific candidate when participating in an election, many states provide the option to submit your ballot without supporting any candidate in a given race. In my current state of Nevada, they make casting an uncommitted vote incredibly easy: at the bottom of every list of candidates for a race is a straightforward option called "None of These Candidates." Most other states that provide this option use the phrase "Uncommitted," as you're voting for a delegate who is 'uncommitted' in their support of any specific candidate at the party convention.

In a smaller handful of states like New York, Maine and Vermont, they do not provide any line item on the ballot itself to vote for none of the listed candidates but they do count blank ballots as uncommitted votes. Voters in these states who wanted to participate in the uncommitted vote movement simply left their presidential nomination vote blank while voting for candidates in other primary races. This creates a gap in the final vote tally where the remaining blank ballots are processed as if all of these voters checked a box like Nevada's "None of These Candidates" option.

Many Weren't Given the Option

One reason why the uncommitted vote movement has been effectively sidelined as a minor disturbance is because half of US states do not allow voters to cast an 'uncommitted' vote in presidential primaries. Therefore, only voters in 25 states could participate in the recent uncommitted vote movement. This makes the movement seem much smaller than its true size as more than half of registered Democrats were locked out from participating thanks to their state party's ballot rules.

2024 Uncommitted Vote Access, by State:

• ✅ 21 states offered a clear box on their ballots for voters to cast an uncommitted vote.
• ⚠️ 4 states counted all ballots including blank ballots, allowing for voters to cast an uncommitted vote without checking a box.
• ⛔ 23 states require you to select a candidate when casting a ballot in order for your vote to be counted (...and 8 of these states do not allow write-in votes.)
• ❌ No primaries or caucuses were held in Florida or Delaware.

Many Uncommitted Voters Are Swing State Voters

Many uncommitted voters in the 2024 Democratic presidential nominating contests are located in swing states that were decided by incredibly slim margins in the 2020 election. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin were all decided by less than three percentage points in 2020 and all of those states saw 5% or more of their primary voters cast an uncommitted vote. And while many will scoff at the idea that Minnesota is at risk of turning red (the state hasn't supported a Republican presidential candidate since Nixon in the early 1970s), 18% of Minnesota primary voters voiced their displeasure with their options by voting uncommitted. This was the second highest percentage of uncommitted votes for any state, only beat by Hawaii which notched a shocking 29%. Many of these votes are from Muslim communities who can't ignore the carnage in Gaza and place the blame directly at Biden's feet.

Biden's Gaza Problem is Only Getting Worse

The uncommitted vote movement is propelled primarily by progressives' outrage with Biden's continued support of Israeli aggression in Gaza. While in recent months, Biden has voiced his displeasure with Israel's approach, he continues to supply the state with military aid. He has done next to nothing to win back these voters who were crucial to his 2020 election win. That's in part because his advisers continue to believe that these voters will ultimately back Biden in November, as most expect Donald Trump would make the situation significantly worse for Palestinians in Gaza. While they're not wrong, the argument that we should tolerate the current genocide because "It could be worse!" is not a compelling argument for the left-wing of Biden's base. And it's an especially poor argument for Muslim voters with connections to Palestinians trapped in Gaza:

"There are real differences between the two [presidential candidates.] But emotionally, there may be no differences for some folks. And that's the danger. It's not good enough to tell people Donald Trump is going to be worse."
-Wa'el Alzayat, head of Emgage, a Muslim advocacy group

But what's most dismaying to me is the way that the Democratic establishment has routinely minimized this movement without seriously listening to and acting on voters' concerns. Remember: none of these voters had to show up on primary day at all. Every election, millions of apathetic voters voice their displeasure by simply tuning out altogether and ignoring the ballot box. But these are engaged voters, these are the people that Democrats rely on to show up every election to "vote blue no matter who." These are voters who are so passionate about electoral participation that they showed up to vote for nobody and party leaders have consistently met this passion with ambivalence. As the Biden campaign pivots to the general election and attempts to schmooze centrist 'Haley voters,' they're foolishly turning a blind eye to the engaged voters that they're losing in the process. While a couple of conservative voters may be necessary for Biden to win, those cross-overs are only effective when paired with a fully activated Democratic base. The uncommitted vote movement is a warning that the base is fraying and establishment Democrats don't seem to care...