Topline Takeaways

• This year's gubernatorial election is already New Jersey's most expensive election in state history, primarily due to high spending in the Democratic primary.
• While no Democratic candidate received a majority of the vote, the winner, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11), successfully won a clear majority of the state's counties.
• After coming within three points of winning in the last gubernatorial election, Jack Ciattarelli was selected by Republicans for his third attempt at the governors' seat.

Establishment Pick Rep. Mikie Sherrill Rises Above the Fray

Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill has emerged from a crowded field of candidates as the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 2025 gubernatorial race. Many of the Democratic candidates in this primary are current legislators with deep fundraising connections, spurring feverish fundraising and already making this election the most expensive in New Jersey's history.

Both Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop ran to Sherrill's left and split the state's left-wing voting base. Baraka was seen as Sherrill's biggest contender, especially after receiving national media attention for being arrested by ICE. Meanwhile, Fulop repeatedly attacked Sherrill's connection to the Democratic establishment. When combined, the left-wing coalition of voters for Baraka and Fulop outnumber Sherrill's final vote total (a combined 297k votes vs. Sherrill's 267k votes) proving there's a strong appetite amongst New Jersey Democrats for left-leaning leadership. All of the race's more moderate contenders (Gottheimer, Sweeney, Spiller) netted less than 100k votes each and largely failed to win voters beyond their local districts.

Sherrill's platform seeks to be a bridge between the party's moderate and left wings. Her policy proposals include progressive priorities like putting more legal pressure on corporations while staying within a moderate framework of streamlining regulations and relying on the free market to deliver for working people. Her leftist challenger Steve Fulop isn't convinced that this strategy will work.

"She’s a creature of the political establishment... After eight years of Democratic machine politics, it’s going to be hard for any Democrat that is part of that structure to be elected... Jack Ciattarelli’s biggest talking point is going to be ‘four more years of Phil Murphy.’ ‘You like your taxes? Four more years of Phil Murphy. You like your energy bill? Four more years of Phil Murphy.’" -Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop

Republicans Pick Jack Ciattarelli for a Third Try

Republicans showed a more united front than Democrats in their support of Jack Ciattarelli. This is likely due to the fact that this is Ciattarelli's third time running to become New Jersey's governor. He was most recently nominated by Republicans last cycle to take on current Gov. Phil Murphy. Ciattarelli shocked many with how close he got to winning in 2021 as he lost to Murphy by less than four points.

An important feature of his background is that he's a recent Trump convert. Ciattarelli was formerly known as a moderate in state politics when he served on the legislature in the 2010s. Upon Trump's emergence back in 2015, Ciattarelli called him a "charlatan" who is "out of step with the Party of Lincoln." Nine years later, Ciattarelli gave Donald Trump his endorsement. Trump responded in kind with an endorsement of his own and helped cement Ciattarelli's frontrunner status in the Republican primary.

Trump's shadow will continue to loom large over this race after his better-than-expected performance in New Jersey last November. Sherrill has already centered her campaign around tying Ciattarelli to Trump and his administration's most unpopular actions. I'm skeptical such a Trump-focused campaign will work as New Jersey is an imperfect state to run this type of campaign. Believe it or not, Trump's has a higher net favorability among New Jersey voters than current governor Phil Murphy. (Trump has an equal amount of favorables vs. unfavorables while Murphy is underwater with a net negative 5-point unfavorability.) History is also not on Democrats' side as the last time one party won three straight governor’s races in the state was back in the 1960s. Despite the state's 'blue state' status for the last 20 years, New Jersey's gubernatorial election is likely to be a nail biter. Sherrill should take a page from Murphy's book and prepare for a 'paranoid' campaign as this election won't be an easy win.

Leftover Links

• Take a look back at the results of 2021's governors race to see how Ciattarelli came so close to flipping the state for Republicans.
• Dive deeper into the geographic dividing lines shaping New Jersey's primary.
• The New Jersey Democrat grilled Rep. Mikie Sherrill on her willingness to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy.