New Hampshire Sets the Stage for A Biden-Trump Rematch
Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley in a head-to-head matchup while Joe Biden defeated his opponents without officially placing his name on the ballot.
Topline Takeaways
- Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley in a head-to-head matchup after Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign just days before the primary.
- For Democrats, this was an unsanctioned primary as the state Democratic party ignored the National Democratic Party's desire for the state to hold their primary later in the year. As a result, no convention delegates were awarded.
- Republicans saw record turnout while Democrats did not. This is likely due to how many independent voters opted to participate in the Republican nomination process. (The state's unaffiliated voters can cast a vote in only one of the major parties' nomination processes.)
New Hampshire's Defiant Democrats
The National Democratic Party didn't want New Hampshire to be the first state on their 2024 primary calendar. The state party didn't care and scheduled its primary anyways on January 23, 2024. Since the DNC can't unilaterally stop a state from holding an election, it opted to de-fang their influence as much as possible. The national party's first move was to send a clear message via its frontrunner: Pres. Joe Biden wasn't going to file to be placed on the ballot. To further prevent insurgent candidates from capitalizing on the vacuum created by Biden's absence from the ballot, the DNC also promised to award no convention delegates to the eventual winner of New Hampshire's primary.
This didn't stop Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson from stepping up their efforts in the state, leading Biden to mount a write-in campaign in opposition. As such, this was a pivotal night for the 2024 Democratic nomination process as this seemed to be the easiest opportunity for Biden's challengers to break through. Unfortunately for them, Pres. Biden still won the primary by a wide margin, winning a majority of votes in every New Hampshire county as a write-in candidate.
While New Hampshire's outcome may assuage some fears for the party, they should remember why they didn't want New Hampshire to start the process in the first place: the state does not reflect the makeup of the party at-large. While the Democratic party's base leans heavily on young and nonwhite voters, New Hampshire is the fourth Whitest state in the nation and is among the Top 10 states with the largest proportion of residents over the age of 65. In other words, New Hampshire's electorate is incredibly White and quite old. So while Democrats may find solace in the preferences of roughly 80,000 New Hampshire voters, this constituency likely isn't reflective of preferences of the Democratic base in most other states.
Polling for Democrats was uncertain heading into the primary due to Joe Biden's write-in campaign. Polls varied widely, some estimating Biden's support at about 50%, others expecting him to capture well over 65% of the total vote. While the margin of error was wide, they were largely correct in predicting that Biden would win a clear majority of New Hampshire's Democratic voters.
Polling for Republicans was incredibly accurate in its estimation of Trump's support, coming within 1 point of the final result. However, polling for Haley was off considerably, underestimating her support over 5 points, likely due to the presence of DeSantis until very late in the race.
Trump Trounces Haley As DeSantis Steps Aside
New Hampshire helped Trump cement his dominance as the frontrunner of the Republican nomination process after beating Nikki Haley by over 10 points. The race was punctuated by high turnout, largely thanks to independent voters opting to participate. (New Hampshire has an open primary where voters unaffiliated with either major party may opt to vote in one of the two major party primaries.)
After Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign the weekend before the primary, Nikki Haley was thrust into the spotlight as Trump's final major challenger. She finished the night trailing the former president in nearly every county in the state except Grafton County. Grafton is home to two universities, the Ivy League Dartmouth College and Plymouth State University, which helps make this county more left-leaning than the state's other nine counties. (The county has supported Democratic presidential candidates consistently in the general election since 1992.)
In the wake of the results, numerous Republicans have coalesced behind Trump and are putting heat on Nikki Haley to concede the nomination. While she has pledged to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday, many are expecting that she will drop out shortly after South Carolina. The stakes are high as Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, is polling nearly 30 points behind Trump in the state. That polling is still taking into account a wider field including DeSantis, Ramaswamy and Christie, but with two of those three candidates having endorsed Trump, Haley shouldn't expect all of their voters to flip for her. Meanwhile, Trump continues to be Teflon Don within his own party as neither his trademark controversial statements nor his seemingly never-ending legal saga have soured a majority of Republican voters on the former president.
Leftover Links
- Biden will face a much more diverse electorate next week when Democrats travel to South Carolina alone for their primary on Feb 3. (Republicans hold their SC primary later in the month on the 24th.)
- Democrats aren't the only ones with an unsanctioned primary. Republicans' next state on the calendar, Nevada, will hold an official caucus AND an unsanctioned primary. Confused? 🤔 You're not the only one...
