Trump Wins Iowa Caucuses With 56,000 Votes
Roughly 100,000 Iowa voters weighed in on who should become the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Topline Takeaways
- Donald Trump won 98 of Iowa's 99 counties in the state's 2024 Republican caucuses while Nikki Haley won the Democratic enclave of Johnson County.
- While Ron DeSantis failed to win a single county, he beat Nikki Haley's vote total by consistently coming in second across many of the state's rural counties.
- Following the caucus results, Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his presidential campaign. He joins Chris Christie on the sidelines as Christie suspended his campaign late last week.
Low Turnout in Iowa
Mother Nature gave Republicans a wake-up call, delivering the coldest Iowa caucuses ever on record. On January 15, 2024, the high temperature for much of Iowa was below zero and in the evening when the caucuses were held the state saw temps as low as -13°. Naturally, this record-breaking cold snap made showing up to in-person caucuses difficult for Iowans. As a result, less than 15% of the state's registered Republicans showed up to cast their preference votes for their party's presidential nominee, amounting to slightly over 110,000 total votes. Historically, this is the lowest turnout for Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses in over a decade. (Although to be fair, the 2016 caucuses set a record high for Republican turnout.)
The polling average in the week ahead of the caucus correctly showed Trump winning with a wide 30-point lead. The main area where polls were slightly off was in their estimation of support for Ron DeSantis. Polls had him coming in third, averaging about 15% support when he actually placed second with over 20% of the vote.
Trump Struggles In Urban Areas
One of the most consistent challenges for Donald Trump is swaying urban voters. While many of Iowa's rural Republicans supported Trump, the state's urban Republican bloc ultimately leaned toward their 'anti-Trump' options. Of the state's eight counties holding urbanized areas, Trump failed to win a majority of Republicans in six of them. These areas are the state's 'final frontier' for the state's recent turn toward the Republican party. The sole county that Trump failed to win, Johnson County, is home to the University of Iowa and has not supported a Republican presidential candidate in the general election since 1960.
Both Haley and DeSantis saw stronger success in urbanized areas where Trump faltered, which in turn complicates either of their chances at beating the current frontrunner. DeSantis ultimately came out ahead of Haley in second place statewide, despite winning no counties outright, primarily due to his ability to court rural voters in numbers that Haley could not match. However, Haley bested DeSantis fairly consistently in urban areas. The unfortunate result is that DeSantis thwarts Haley's ability to consolidate urban Republicans but is at the same time unable to mount a serious opposition to Trump in rural areas.
Christie, Ramaswamy Both Suspend Campaigns
The Iowa caucuses led to the demise of two 2024 presidential campaigns. Chris Christie suspended his campaign days before the caucuses as polling showed him limping along in the single digits. Following out the door behind him was Vivek Ramaswamy, who waited until shortly after votes were counted to suspend his campaign. This movement winnows the field down to three contenders who are likely to scoop up Christie's and Ramaswamy's supporters: former Pres. Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis, and former Gov. Nikki Haley. Ramaswamy wasted no time throwing his support behind Trump, while Chris Christie has yet to make an endorsement of the remaining candidates.
Leftover Links
- UPDATE: Ron DeSantis suspends his campaign days before New Hampshire primaries.
- Hear from Iowa caucus-goers themselves on which issues are most important to them in the 2024 election
- Be sure to check out Battleground's 2024 Primary Hub to see which state is next on the nominating calendar.
