Colorado's Blue Wave Helmed By Latine Voters
A reminder that midterm election results are best viewed through localized trends not national narratives.
Topline Takeaways
- Colorado Democrats made historic gains in the 2022 midterm elections, holding on to all statewide offices and US House seats while increasing their margins in both chambers of the state legislature.
- Latine voters supported the Democratic party by a 2-to-1 margin statewide, resting concerns that Latine voters nationwide are shifting toward Republicans.
- The Colorado Republican Party struggles to find a path forward as its loudest voices are urging the party to double down on its conservatism rather than appeal to the state’s liberal voting base.
Colorado’s Blue Wave
While Colorado Democrats prepared for the worst in the weeks leading up to the 2022 election, it was Colorado Republicans who should have prepared themselves for a rough time. It can’t be understated just how impactful this election was for Colorado Democrats.
First, Democrats produced landslide victories in statewide races, even in races that pundits were rating “toss-ups” in the final weeks before the election. Many believed that Colorado’s Senate race would come down to a nail-biter, yet Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet wiped the floor with his opponent by a wide 15-point margin. Incumbent Gov. Jared Polis saw an even bigger win, beating Republican challenger Heidi Ganahal by nearly 20 points. This is becoming a trend for Colorado: no statewide Republican candidate has received more than 45% of the vote since 2016. Voters also allowed Democrats to retain complete control of all chambers of state government for the first time in the state’s history, as Democrats increased their margins in both the state House and the state Senate.
“Honestly I think Colorado Republicans need to take this and learn the lesson that the party is dead. This was an extinction-level event… This was the asteroid that ended the reign of the dinosaur, and in this case, the dinosaur was the Republican party.” -Republican state Rep. Colin Larson.
Colorado’s blue wave is best seen in US House races as Democrats saw some dramatic shifts toward the party. Every House district except one (CO-5) saw increased support for Democrats when compared to the 2020 election with two districts shifting to the left by more than 10 points. Most importantly, Democrats were able to capture Colorado’s newest House seat, CO-8, thanks to Yadira Caraveo and her ability to mobilize the district’s large Latine population.
Each circle on the diagram above represents one of Colorado’s US House districts. Circles are colored to represent the winning party for that year and arrows show the change in vote between that election and the previous election.
Colorado’s Latine Voters Boost Democrats
Exit polls show that Democrats across the state were effective in courting Latine voters as this voting bloc supported the Democratic party over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. The candidacy of Rep. Yadira Caraveo serves as a great example for how Latine voters ultimately turned out for Democrats and thwarted emerging trends seen in other states. Caraveo is the daughter of Mexican immigrants who moved to Colorado to secure a better life for their family. She credits her Mexican-American heritage as a key factor in securing a win as this new district has the highest proportion of Latine voters in the state. When she is sworn in next January, she will make state history as the first Latina woman to hold a Colorado US House seat.
“I had so many people pull me aside, give me hugs, give me kisses on the cheeks and say, ‘It's so great to finally see somebody like us not just running for Congress, but possibly representing us.’ -Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
Republicans Can’t Blame Redistricting
Once the dust settled on most races, Republicans immediately began pointing fingers. Rather than address the fact that their policy platforms were incompatible with the state’s liberal leaning voting base, some have asserted that maps were rigged against Republicans. Conservative members of the state’s redistricting committee immediately pushed back.
“On these pages recently, Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy attributed at least some of the plight of Colorado Republicans to gerrymandering. As the four Republican members of the 2021 Colorado Independent Legislative Redistricting Commission, we object to this conclusion.“
-Hunter Barnett, John Buckley, Connie Hass and Aislinn Kottwitz
They shared that the Colorado Constitution demands that mapmakers draw competitive districts and how that’s a good thing for democracy.
“Because the commission drew far more competitive districts than before, both parties were more exposed. Each had the potential for higher gains but smaller minorities than before... Republicans gained the opportunity to achieve majorities, particularly in the Senate. That Republicans lost all competitive seats, even Republican-leaning ones, is not the fault of the map.... Rather than an indictment of the maps, the 2022 elections demonstrate the maps’ successes; in a blue wave, many seats go blue. Now, it’s up to the Republicans to put together a winning message and a red wave.“
